Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Healthy Mid-Cycle Growth Amid Market Fluctuations

Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, hovering around 2.0 as of November 2025, paints a picture of a structurally sound market. This metric, a key indicator of investor sentiment, suggests Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle expansion phase—far from the euphoric peaks of past bull runs, where ratios soared above 4.0, or the accumulation phases marked by sub-1.0 readings. The current level implies investors are sitting on healthy profits without exhibiting the excessive exuberance that often precedes market tops. On-chain data further reinforces this outlook, revealing steadfast conviction among long-term holders. Their reluctance to sell, even amid volatility, underscores a bullish undercurrent. While short-term price swings persist, the MVRV ratio’s mid-range positioning hints at room for continued growth before reaching historically overbought territory. This balanced dynamic offers a compelling case for Bitcoin’s resilience and potential upward trajectory in the coming months.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Suggests Mid-Cycle Expansion Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, currently NEAR 2.0, indicates a structurally healthy market far from the euphoric extremes seen in prior bull runs. Historical thresholds show overvaluation peaks at 4.0, while readings below 1.0 signal accumulation phases. The mid-range level suggests investors are profitable but not overly exuberant.

On-chain metrics reveal long-term holders are steadfast, avoiding large sell-offs. Institutional ETF inflows remain steady, and miner selling pressure has declined, reinforcing a maturing yet constructive market phase. bitcoin cycles typically unfold in three stages—recovery, expansion, and euphoria—with current conditions mirroring mid-cycle dynamics.

Friday’s flash crash wiped billions from the market but was followed by a swift rebound. The resilience underscores underlying strength, with analysts noting the absence of panic-driven capitulation. Market sentiment, while optimistic, lacks the frothiness that often precedes major corrections.

Bitcoin Price Still Bearish Post The 'Great Reset' — Yet One Level Could Change That

Bitcoin's price structure remains slightly bearish following the market's 'Great Reset,' but a critical level could signal a bullish reversal. On-chain metrics suggest stabilization is underway, though conviction among traders remains tentative.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric hit 0.50 on October 11, its lowest since April, indicating most investors have absorbed losses—a potential sign of selling exhaustion. A similar NUPL level in late September preceded a 14% rebound from $109,000 to $124,000.

Long-term holders are gradually returning to accumulation, with the Holder Net Position Change improving by 14% between October 10-13. This easing of selling pressure hints at a foundation for recovery, though the market awaits decisive momentum.

Bitcoin Plunges to $102K Amid Trade Tensions, Remittix Emerges as Top Buy

Bitcoin suffered one of its sharpest single-day drops this year, tumbling from $122,000 to $102,000 as US-China trade tensions triggered a $20 billion liquidation event across crypto exchanges. The selloff exceeded 2022's volatility, with Leveraged positions unwinding rapidly before a partial recovery to $114,000 revealed persistent institutional demand.

Market strategist Michael van de Poppe notes Bitcoin must hold the 20-week moving average at $113,300 to maintain its bullish trajectory. A breach below $110,000 could test $98,000 support, while sustained momentum may propel prices toward $125,000-$150,000 by year-end.

Amid the turbulence, Remittix has emerged as a standout project, raising $27.4 million through its token sale at $0.1166 per token. The platform's 678 million token distribution highlights growing investor appetite for infrastructure plays during market dislocations.

Russian Economist Predicts Bitcoin Rally to $120K-$130K by End of 2025 Amid Market Tensions

Bitcoin could reclaim the $120,000-$130,000 range by the end of 2025, according to Russian economist Taisiya Veprentseva of the Delomant Group. In an interview with Lenta.ru, she cited ongoing market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, as a key factor influencing crypto asset prices.

Fear of a trade war has prompted some risk-averse investors to exit positions, but Veprentseva anticipates a cautious return to the market. "After such a sharp decline, some participants will begin to cautiously return to their positions, hoping for a rebound," she said. However, institutional players may remain sidelined until trade policies clarify.

Bitcoin recently surged past $126,000 before retreating below $110,000, reflecting broader market jitters. Analysts attribute the sell-off to macroeconomic uncertainty rather than crypto-specific fundamentals.

Was Last Week’s Deleveraging Event a Necessary Reset for The Bitcoin Market?

Friday, October 10, marked a pivotal moment in crypto history as the market endured its largest liquidation event amid U.S.-China trade tensions. The fallout rippled across spot, futures, and derivatives segments, erasing $19 billion in open interest. Glassnode frames this as a necessary market reset, with futures funding rates plunging to 2022 bear market levels.

Key metrics underscore the severity of the shakeout. Bitcoin's RSI plummeted 26% from overbought territory to neutral, while spot CVD flipped from $8.6 million to -$326.9 million—a 3,883% reversal. These movements reveal collapsing leverage and accelerating sell pressure, though derivatives markets show risk appetite contracting as positions unwind.

Citigroup Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $181,000 in 12 Months Amid Institutional Inflows

Bitcoin's rally this year has been fueled by growing institutional interest and its perceived role as digital gold. The cryptocurrency repeatedly set new highs before experiencing a sharp correction on October 10, when $19 billion was liquidated—the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history, according to CoinGlass.

Citigroup analysts remain bullish, maintaining a $181,000 price target for Bitcoin over the next year, representing a 57% upside from recent levels. The bank slightly trimmed its year-end forecast to $133,000, citing strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now hold over $160 billion since their January approval by the SEC.

Market volatility persists as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty influence trader sentiment. Yet, Bitcoin's recovery from last week's sell-off suggests underlying demand remains robust.